There’s a lot of money to be won this week DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the primary tournament. I will be going heavier than normal this week following the significant GPP prizes, and I will play less money games than usual. This is actually the first time we’ve observed a 30k top prize, therefore I believe it is well worth chasing if you have the bankroll for it.
We did lose the co-main occasion with Max Holloway pulling out of the struggle against Brian Ortega, thus we’re down to 11 fights and we ought to observe a great deal of ties on this card with the popular lineups. If you’re chasing that $30K then you will want to attempt to be a little different with your lineup so you can distinguish yourself from the rest of the area. With that said, let us get into a few plays I enjoy in addition to my fade of the week.
Money Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing with this fight is way off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is $1,400 less than his opponent, Mike Perry. On the gambling line, Felder is the -150 favorite. That’s just too much line worth to pass in money games which makes Felder that the”free square” this week. Even when he loses this battle, he should be so highly owned that it will not even hurt your lineup in cash games. In GPP’s, Felder will be among the highest owned fighters on the card and when he loses there then it may kill your lineup, so maybe consider preventing the chalk there if you can. However, with this crazy line value we’re getting here, Paul Felder is the easy pick for the money game play of this week.
GPP drama of the week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this seems a bit weird because I just picked Paul Felder as my cash play of this week, but hear me out. In cash games, we all do not care about possession. If Felder is 90% owned in cash games, then it will not hurt your lineup because only 10% of lineups didn’t have him and you only need to be top ~50% of the area to cash in cash games. In GPPs, I am imagining Felder will probably be over 50% owned. When he loses, that is half of the field that’s dead with no shot at winning 1st location.
Mike Perry on the other hand will be less than 20% owned, and closer to 10% just because of this mispriced line. If Felder kills and loses off 50% of lineups, then you get a triumph using the low owned guy to set you in a far better location of a Royal 1st place win and maybe hitting $30k. Perry has the capability to KO anybody and Paul Felder is carrying this fight on short notice in a weight class above his division. Would it shock you that much if Perry could KO him in this fight? In GPPs, we’re interested in finding that boom or bust drama and that’s Mike Perry this week making him my GPP drama of the week.
Underdog drama of this week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis could have been a -500 favored over Michael Chiesa if this struggle took place 5 years ago, but now we get a fading Pettis as a underdog and $1,000 cheaper than Chiesa on DraftKings. I believe Pettis can continue to keep this battle standing for many the fight and that should give him a big edge. He’s also dangerous on the ground himself and if he’s taken down I think he will be able to get back up if he isn’t able to get a submission of his very own. In case Pettis can acquire a decision then I presume he will pay off his DK cost and will be a good underdog to utilize so it is possible to conserve salary on your lineups. I can even see this fight ending early from Pettis dropping Chiesa with a human body kick and if that happens he will likely be on the winning lineup when he can make it happen in round 1.
Fade of the week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I really do think he wins the struggle, but I don’t see him paying off that large price tag. He does not fight at a hefty rate and he has not gotten a takedown in his past 4 wins and the floor is where he’ll have his main advantage in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao has not scored over 78 DK points and in his wages this week I want at least 91 points from him to pay that much. I would rather cover the guys higher priced compared to Assuncao, or even go down to Vannata or Miocic. I will have 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will be in 0 of these, which makes him my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 on this link below: