This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight PPV card in Atlanta. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to win a lot of cash from this week and I can not wait to chase those huge prizes. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that match. I will attempt to get my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I will likely stick to the very best GPP this week and toss 100 or so entries at the $30k prize, then I will probably take a few shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let’s get into a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — STACK — Max Holloway $9,100 and Dustin Poirier $7,100
This was the first thing I did when wages were published. I put both of these fighters in my money lineup and I started building from there. I expect this to be among the best fights of all time and I believe we get ~200 complete DK points from this struggle, and the guaranteed win. I’m ok with taking the loss when I can assure myself over 100 issues together with the pile, but I think 150 is a secure projection for this struggle and if we can lock up 3 additional wins we ought to win the vast majority of our cash games. Like I always saywe do not want 6 wins for money games so there’s actually no need to chase it. Only lock in a safe lineup which you believe will score over 400 total points and you should acquire more H2Hs than you lose.
GPP play of this week — Nikita Krylov — $8,200
Krylov is my GPP play of the week because he’s the definition of boom or bust. He loses or scores over 100 DK points. That is what we desire in GPPs. This isn’t a confident pick in him winning it is only a shot at his ceiling that is what we look for in the big GPPs where we’re attempting to acquire the top $30k prize. Krylov has completed all 24 of his wins and he has only seen the 3rd round once in his career. This is a great fight to target on either side, but I am taking Krylov to get the win and I have a fantastic amount of exposure to him this weekend.
Underdog drama of this week — Dustin Poirier — $7,100
I needed to put Poirier here. I love his floor and I think he’s a live underdog. But IF he wins, he will 100% end up on the 1st place lineup in his $7.1k price-tag. He’s going to score over 100 DK points if he is able to get a success here and that’s what we’re chasing in GPPs. Even if you believe Max will dominate Poirier I believe that you should possess 1 hedge lineup utilizing Poirier, and this can be an all-in struggle for me. Every lineup I construct will begin with Dustin or Max and I’ll go on from there. Load up on this fight and make sure you find any Poirier exposure.
Fade of this week — Boston Salmon ($8,600)
It was hard to pick a fade of the week this week because I think you can make an argument for rostering everyone. I wanted to pick a favorite though and I think that the favored with among the lower ceilings is Salmon. I am picking him to win but he won’t be going for any takedowns and if he does not get a finish he probably does not pay off his $8.6k price tag. I need at least 10x (86-points) if I am rostering someone and I don’t see him getting that unless he receives a knockout. Taha is tough so I really don’t see the knockout occurring. I believe Salmon does make a unanimous decision win here but it likely scores in the 70’s and that will not win us the big $30k. That’s why he’s my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I am 66-41 to get +220.23u (+$22,023) since May 19th on Premium Plays)